Cincinnati Bengals 2007 Draft Preview

Football Betting Lines

04/02/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cincinnati had its problems defensively last season, then lost reliable players like linebacker Brian Simmons (released) and safety Kevin Kaesviharn (free agent to Saints) in the offseason. The Bengals need to get younger and find a playmaker or two in the secondary, and could use a sturdy run-stopping type at linebacker. The offense lost Kelley Washington to free agency and has a potential suspension for fellow wideout Chris Henry hanging over its head, so a new receiver could join the mix. But Cincinnati, a team that received a total of 35 catches and two touchdowns from its tight ends last year, could add a different offensive dimension by selecting a player like Miami-Florida's Greg Olsen at No. 18, perhaps mitigating the effect of the potential absence of Henry.

2006 Record: 8-8

First Pick: No. 18

Number of Selections: 7 (1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 7)

RECENT FIRST ROUND HISTORY: 2006 - Johnathan Joseph (CB, South Carolina); 2005 - David Pollack (OLB, Georgia); 2004 - Chris Perry (RB, Michigan); 2003 - Carson Palmer (QB, Southern Cal); 2002 - Levi Jones (OT, Arizona State); 2001 - Justin Smith (DE, Missouri); 2000 - Peter Warrick (WR, Florida State); 1999 - Akili Smith (QB, Oregon); 1998 - Takeo Spikes (LB, Auburn), Brian Simmons (LB, North Carolina); 1997 - Reinard Wilson (DE, Florida State); 1996 - Willie Anderson (OT, Auburn); 1995 - Ki-Jana Carter (RB, Penn State); 1994 - Dan Wilkinson (DT, Ohio State); 1993 - John Copeland (DE, Alabama); 1992 - David Klingler (QB, Houston), Darryl Williams (S, Miami); 1991 - Alfred Williams (LB, Colorado); 1990 - James Francis (LB, Baylor).

Collegesoccerbetting Football Betting News

<< Kansas City Chiefs 2007 Draft Preview
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Though defensive-minded head coach Herm Edwards would probably rather shore up his area of expertise, there is no disputing that Kansas City has more significant needs on offense. The Chiefs have long lacked a first-rate No.

<< Miami Dolphins 2007 Draft Preview
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The million dollar question for the Dolphins involves the quarterback position. Joey Harrington was released, Daunte Culpepper cannot realistically be viewed as a reliable option, and Dan Marino does not appear ready to come

<< New York Jets 2007 Draft Preview
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Jets could use some assistance in the secondary, where safety Kerry Rhodes is the only player that warrants special notation in the opposing scouting report. New York added a wealth of players to the front seven via free

<< New England Patriots 2007 Draft Preview
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Patriots have endured perpetual health problems in the secondary, particularly at safety, where Rodney Harrison has missed most of the last two years due to injury. If New England doesn't target secondary help with one of

<< Baltimore Ravens 2007 NFL Draft Preview
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Ravens filled their most pressing offseason need by trading for running back Willis McGahee on March 8th, but following the defections of right tackle Tony Pashos (Jaguars), guard Edwin Mulitalo (released) and fullback Ov

Oakland Raiders 2007 Draft Preview >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Draftniks everywhere are sitting on pins and needles waiting to see what the Raiders will do with the No. 1 pick. Conventional wisdom says that offensively-challenged will select strong-armed LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell,

Jacksonville Jaguars 2007 Draft Preview >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Jaguars were done in last season largely due to injury problems on defense, so enhancing their base of talent on that side of the football will likely be the franchise's top draft-day goal. High-priced defensive end Reggi

San Diego Chargers 2007 Draft Preview >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chargers could end up with as many as six first-day picks, as the team would add a first- and third-rounder if another club signs away restricted free agent running back Michael Turner. The possibility of six more ready-t

Cleveland Browns 2007 Draft Preview >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Like the Dolphins, the Browns are a team with a draft status that will be impacted by what it chooses to do at the quarterback position in the coming weeks. Conventional wisdom suggests that Cleveland will add a veteran QB su

Denver Broncos 2007 Draft Preview >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Broncos are likely to be in the market for linebacker help, since middle man Al Wilson is being shopped in a trade and is set to be released if he is not dealt. After releasing the disappointing Courtney Brown, some assis

Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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