Red Sox aim to stay in playoff mix, take series from O's

Baseball Betting Lines

09/02/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Red Sox have missed the playoffs only once in the previous seven years, but are in danger of being left out for the first time since the 2006 campaign.

The Red Sox are seven games off the wild card lead and eight games behind for the top spot in the American League East Division, and will shoot for a series win tonight against the division-foe Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards. They were able to even the set with Wednesday's 9-6 come-from-behind victory in which Boston scored six runs during the seventh inning.

Marco Scutaro hit a two-run homer, Victor Martinez plated a run with a double and Adrian Beltre capped the scoring with a three-run blast for the Red Sox, who rebounded from Tuesday's series opening loss and improved to 2-3 on a six- game road trip. J.D. Drew also homered in the win. Beltre needs three RBI for 1,000 in his career and leads the Red Sox with 91 for the season.

Jon Lester started for the victors and recorded the win, despite allowing eight hits and five runs over six innings. The lefty, who fanned 10 batters, is now 13-0 lifetime against the Orioles.

"I don't think it really matters how many losses in a row we have or wins," Lester said. "We just need to chip away and get some wins. It's obviously nice to come back tonight and do that."

Jonathan Papelbon posted a scoreless ninth for his 34th save.

Red Sox starter Daisuke Matsuzaka has allowed four runs in three straight and four of five starts, and is expected to take the mound Thursday night. He is 0-1 with a 5.31 earned run average in his last three trips to the hill and did not record a decision in his last start on August 21 versus Toronto.

The right-hander lasted eight innings and was reached for four runs and six hits with eight strikeouts. He has struck out at least six batters in four straight starts and is 8-4 in 19 outings this season. Matsuzaka, who is 4-2 in 11 road appearances this season, made his 2010 debut at Baltimore on May 1 and suffered the loss in the 12-9 decision. The Orioles posted seven runs -- six earned -- in 4 2/3 innings against the Japanese hurler.

Matsuzaka is 3-2 with a 5.65 ERA in seven career starts against the O's.

Baltimore scored four runs in the first inning and had a 5-3 lead before surrendering six runs in the seventh. Mark Hendrickson took the loss for his contributions to the explosion, as he allowed three runs in 1 1/3 innings.

Jake Arrieta tossed the first five innings and allowed three runs on six hits with five strikeouts, while Alfredo Simon was also touched for three runs in relief for the Orioles, who had a four-game winning streak halted.

"Jake battled his way through five innings and kept the damage to a minimum, but there are a lot of good players over there with a track record, and they make you pay for the mistakes you do make," Baltimore manager Buck Showalter said on the club's website.

Showalter is still one win away from 900 career victories. He will become the 64th manager in baseball history to achieve the feat.

Adam Jones drove in two runs in last night's loss, and both Ty Wigginton and Felix Pie finished with two hits and an RBI. Jones left the game in the seventh inning with back soreness, but should be able to play today. Jake Fox took over for Jones in the outfield.

Since losing five consecutive starts more than a month ago, Orioles starter Brad Bergesen has turned things around to the tune of a 3-0 mark with a 2.70 ERA in his last six starts, with his team going 5-1 in that span. He is slated to make his 25th appearance (23rd start) Thursday night.

In his most recent start at Angel Stadium last Friday, Bergesen held the homestanding Angels to only a run and four hits in eight innings. The righty improved to 6-9 with a 5.55 ERA this season.

Bergesen is 1-1 in two starts against Boston this season and 1-2 lifetime with a 3.71 ERA in four starts in this series.

Boston and Baltimore have split 14 matchups this season.

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NCAA Football Betting

Many fans thought it was the best side in the nation by the end of last season. This year, the polls have built on Georgia's momentum and granted it the No. 1 preseason ranking, followed by Ohio State and USC. (The Associated Press has the Buckeyes at No. 2; USA Today took the Trojans.)

"To have people believing we have one of the best teams in the nation going into this thing, it's exciting for us," Bulldogs coach Mark Richt told the AP. "I don't think anything is guaranteed, but we certainly have put ourselves in position where at least the college football world thinks we're pretty good."

Georgia Bulldogs - 9.5 wins

There's no question they're good, but the Bulldogs have one of the toughest 12-game schedules in the nation, mostly because they play in the powerhouse Southeastern Conference. Away games at No. 15 Arizona State, No. 7 LSU and No. 10 Auburn loom large, with contests between the hedges versus No. 24 Alabama and No. 18 Tennessee as well as the World's Largest Cocktail Party in Jacksonville versus No.5 Florida.

Ohio State Buckeyes - 10 wins

Like the Bulldogs, the Buckeyes also have a number of tough road contests in 2008. After two scrimmages dressed up as real games versus Youngstown State and Ohio, it's off to face USC. Other tough away games include No.13 Wisconsin in October and No. 20 Illinois in November. Granted, it should be pretty easy sledding at the Horseshoe. In fact, the only ranked team that travels to Columbus is No. 22 Penn State, in October.

USC Trojans - 10.5 wins

A similarly light schedule awaits the Trojans of Southern California, which is why the oddsmakers' total is one win more and the over is currently commanding -150 odds. Pete Carroll's troops only play three ranked teams in 2008, and all of those games are at home. After what should be an easy trip to Virginia to start things off on Aug. 30, the Trojans get two weeks to prepare for Ohio State in Los Angeles. Their two other ranked opponents, No. 21 Oregon and No. 15 Arizona State, visit in consecutive weeks to start the month of October. After that, the competition eases up. Of course, this is the same highly-touted school that lost to Stanford in 2007 and Oregon State in 2006. And don't discount the fact that USC plays its biggest rivals, Notre Dame and UCLA, back-to-back to close out the regular season. On paper, the Trojans are far superior, but motivation will be high for the Irish and Bruins, especially if their historic foes are in national-title contention.

Odds to Win the Heisman Trophy

Tim Tebow, Florida - 7/2
He won it last year, so it's no surprise he's the favorite to do it again, making him just the second player to go back-to-back. Ohio State's Archie Griffin turned the trick in 1974 and 1975, and Tebow's coach, Urban Meyer, is pretty sure his star quarterback can match the Buckeyes legend.

"There has never been anyone quite like him," Meyer told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "I am very lucky to be his coach."

Chris Wells, Ohio State - 5/1

The man they call "Beanie" was a star recruit out of high school, so it's not like nobody knew who the star tailback was before he rushed for 576 yards as a freshman in 2006 and 1,609 as a sophomore. But perhaps his finest moment came last year versus Michigan when he rumbled for 222 yards and two touchdowns in the Buckeyes' 14-3 victory over the hated Wolverines.

Knowshon Moreno, Georgia - 8/1

If the Bulldogs are to live up to expectations, they'll need a huge effort from their sophomore running back. This might be the last year of college ball for Moreno, who rushed for 1,334 yards and for 14 touchdowns as a freshman, while adding 253 receiving yards on 20 receptions, so expect big things for the man from Belford, N.J.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.